Kashif Mateen Ansari
Energy is a key infrastructural requirement for the modern industrial economy. Energy provides an essential ingredient for almost all human activities. Historically, Pakistan has been an energy deficient country. Because of the fast-growing population and economy, the demand for energy is rapidly increasing. Pakistan is in danger of facing huge energy deficits in the coming years. The potential for the use of alternative technologies has never been fully explored in Pakistan. Pakistan needs to pursue renewable energy resources which are used extensively worldwide. The two most important alternative energy resources are Wind Power and Solar Energy. These are used across the globe and their technology is becoming efficient day by day.
The demand for energy has increased tremendously in the last few decades in Pakistan and is expected to increase further in the coming years. The continued power and energy crises in the past several years have affected the GDP negatively. The current electricity shortage in peak summer season is about 5500 MW and it reduces to about 3000 MW in winter season. Pakistan is currently producing most of its electricity from imported oil and natural gas.
The use of natural gas in generating electricity reduces the share of it for other consumers while the generation of electricity from imported oil is extremely expensive and is a huge burden on import bill. Curtailment of natural gas, necessitating usage of expensive furnace oil, and overall decline in the share of hydel generation in the total generation results in a sustained higher cost of electricity generation. The proposed energy mix by the government states to decrease dependence on natural gas and oil by shifting focus on coal, renewable and nuclear resources.
The demand of electricity in the country will continue to rise in the future. It is reported that Pakistan electricity demand will reach 40,000 MW by 2020 and 100,000 MW by 2035. Special efforts are required to bridge the rising gap between the demand and supply of electricity.
Pakistan is bestowed by a good wind resource unlike many other countries in the world. The wind map of Pakistan developed by National Renewable Energy Labs (USA) identifies that wind with good to excellent speeds is available in many parts of the country with a total potential of about 340,000 MW. The Gharo-Keti Bandar Wind Corridor, in the South of Pakistan, having an approximate potential of 50,000 MW is more attractive to investors due to good resource potential as well as its close proximity to major load centers and the national grid. Wind energy is commercially viable and technically feasible. It provides us an opportunity to fulfill our energy needs by using environmentally friendly, pollution-free and infinitely sustainable form of energy.
The 2012 global wind power market grew by more than 10% compared to 2011, and the installation of nearly 45 GW of new wind power that came on line represents investments of about € 56 billion. The new global total at the end of 2012 was 282.5 GW, representing cumulative market growth of more than 19%. Europe and Asia are the world’s largest regional markets for wind energy with total installed capacity of 109.5 GW and 97.5 GW respectively. China is the largest market for wind since 2009 with a cumulative installed capacity of 75.32 GW. In 2012, USA installed 13.1 GW wind energy which made it the market leader for 2012 in terms of new wind installations globally.
India installed new wind energy of 2,336 MW by the end of 2012, for a cumulative total of 18,421 MW. On the other hand, Pakistan recently installed wind energy of only 106 MW. India focused on renewable energy timely and has been an attractive market for investors, especially due to its policy of incentive for investment like high depreciation benefit rates. In the past Pakistan failed to realize the importance of renewable energy in a timely manner which resulted in delays in the development and execution of projects in the Wind Energy sector.
Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) and National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) are trying their best to cope up with the international wind energy scenario. NEPRA has announced Feed-in-Tariff for the wind energy projects to facilitate investors. Now the availability of wind energy equipment suppliers, and technical assistance does not remain an issue. Eight wind energy projects are in the pipeline to start generation of 550 MW very soon and 33 with a total capacity of around 2,200 MW are in various stages of the project development process. Renewable energy policy of government states to achieve the generation of 2,500 MW wind energy by 2015 and 9,700 MW by 2030. If the stated projects start to deliver on time, then Pakistan would be a sizeable wind energy market of the world in the near future.
Solar Energy is another great avenue in the renewable scene of Pakistan. Solar photovoltaic has attained a total global capacity of 102,156 megawatts (MW) by the end of 2012. By the end of 2012 Germany was leading the world in Solar PV technology with installed capacity of 32,000MW. Italy was at the 2nd place with a capacity of 16,300MW and China at the 3rd place with a capacity of 8,300MW. An exponential increase has been observed in the Solar PV capacity in last 10 years, where the global installed capacity of Solar Power has increased from 2235 MW in 2002 to 102,156 MW by 2012. This clearly manifests that Solar as a source of renewable energy has gained ground.
Pakistan has been bestowed with immense Solar potential. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), USA in collaboration with USAID and Alternative Energy Development Board Pakistan has carried out a detailed analysis and indicated that the solar energy potential for power generation in Pakistan is approximately 2.9 million MW.
With this massive potential and the distribution of the resource all over the country Solar presents a unique opportunity. It can be used to generate power at a centralized location and then feeding the power to the central grid. Quad -e- Azam Solar Park is an example of such an initiative that has already been taken by the government. This park will generate 1000MW of Solar power once completed.
Another important aspect of of Solar power is its availability as a resource all across Pakistan, which can be used to generate power at the micro level where the households and small businesses can put up small solar plants and generate electricity. As the domestic load consists of 46.4% of the total electricity consumption in Pakistan so this will help in two ways; one by reducing the load on the main grid and second by providing electricity to the far flung areas which are not connected with the grid.
Solar and Wind Power has become commercially viable technologies and the world has seen great progress in the utilization of these sources of power. It is very important that Pakistan must harness these natural resources and start producing energy from the Sun and the Wind. We can reduce our dependence on the fossil fuels, thus improving our energy security and economy, both by utilizing this unlimited natural resource. If we drag our feet today, then we will be left behind as we are already lagging behind our neighbours. Just to augment this point India has more than 12000 MW of energy generated through wind, whereas Pakistan has only 106 MW of Wind power generation operational at the moment. Similarly India generates more than 2,200 MW from Solar Energy now, whereas Pakistan has yet to see any sizeable project coming into production in the area of Solar Power. With respect to the future of Solar in our neighbours India expects to install an additional 10,000 MW by 2017 and a total of 20,000 MW by 2022.
As the opportunity depends on the way we perceive a situation so the relative backwardness of the renewable scene in Pakistan (which is a negative though) presents itself as a great opportunity for the potential investors. In the future, due to the great potential in these areas, the advancement of technology and the requirement of power generation through renewable resources we can foresee this sector as a great avenue for investment and economic growth. Business houses in Pakistan and foreign investors can invest in the area of renewable energy and become part of the economic development of Pakistan.
The writer is the CEO of a power project and can be reached at kashifmateenansari@post.harvard.edu
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