HAFIZ MUHAMMAD IRFAN
The United States and Iran enjoyed cordial relations from the signing of Treaty of Commerce and Navigations in 1856 till 1979 with some downs in the 1950s. But these relations between both the countries reached all time worst condition in 1979 when Iranians, who were frustrated due to corrupt practices of the then powerful monarch Mohammed Reza Shah Pahalvi, overthrew him. As a result of revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came into power. Khomeini declared U.S. as “Great Satan”, his followers attacked American Embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. 
From Ayatollah Khomeini (1979) till the end of Ahmadinejad’s period in (2013) Iran and U.S.-fought proxy wars, relations saw some progress but mostly regression. The US imposed strict sanctions on Iranian oil trade, banking, and travel and froze 45 billion dollars of Iranian money belonging to their elite which were banked in United States. Now a prominent turning point has appeared in the form of US-Iran nuclear deal.
Iran’s nuclear deal with United States and five other world nuclear powers including Russia, China, France, Germany and Great Britain is a remarkable development to boost Iran-US ties. The United States’ main purpose of the deal is to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and nuclear enrichment. Under the agreement, Iran will halt uranium enrichment above five percent and will not install next-generation centrifuges to enrich uranium while it will transfer all stock of 20 percent enriched uranium into gas or fuel rods. In return, Iran will receive $ 7 billion in terms of limited sanctions relief.
Now, this interim nuclear deal among Iran and six world powers is being seen as a ray of hope to normalize relations between both the countries. US analysts are of the view that if Iran goes nuclear, regional conflict is on the cards. US has been quite successful in getting support of five other world powers to pressurize Iran for coming to negotiation table and inking a deal.
The US has a clear stance on stopping Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The Jewish Institute of National Security Affairs (JINSA) in its report, “Strategy to Prevent Nuclear Iran” says, “Three consecutive presidential administrations, of both parties Democrats and Republicans, have declared a nuclear Iran unacceptable. Shortly after his election in 2008, President Barack Obama pledged, like his predecessors, to use all elements of American power to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel spelled out the Administration’s position even more clearly during a visit to Israel this spring: all military options, and every option, must remain on the table in dealing with Iran.”
There are hardliners on both sides who are opposing this deal. As per Foreign Policy Magazine report published on December 19, 2013, two of the most senior Democrats in the US Senate including Robert Menendez, “who chairs the powerful foreign affairs committee” and Chuck Schumer, “the third-ranking Democrat in chamber” have asked to impose new sanctions on Iran. 
It will be very difficult for President Obama and Secretary John Kerry to get Congress to agree not to impose new sanctions on Iran. If they keep on failing and Congress passes legislation, new sanctions can sabotage the final deal with Iran. On the other hand, it could be a pressure tactic to force Iran to go by the book. U.S. Senator will only make a hue and cry for sanctions while in reality these sanctions will not be imposed.
However, President Obama has recently stated that he would veto any new sanctions passed by the U.S. Congress during talks on a long-term deal with Iran.
The US Secretary of the State, Mr. John Kerry, in a testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also requested not to go for new sanctions against Iran, he said, “This is a very delicate diplomatic moment, and we have a chance to address peacefully one of the most pressing national security concerns that the world faces today with gigantic implications of the potential of conflict”.
It was also necessary for America’s strategic interest to go for a diplomatic solution with Iran by signing a nuclear deal in the context of Afghan end game as U.S. has to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan and U.S needs Iran’s role in Afghanistan.
On the other hand, Iran wants to boost its economy. Commenting on the deal, Dr. Tahir Amin, a renowned Pakistani Professor of Political Science and Director, National Institute of Pakistan Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad argued, “Iran is going to adopt Turkish model. It wants to boost its economy. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is doing what he had pledged in his presidential election campaign that he will revive Iran’s economy as its economy is on crossroads, he remarked.”
Moreover, Vali Nasr in his article “Iran’s Economy on Crossroads”, published in The New York Times on December 04, 2013 said, “under the stringent sanctions of the past two years, Iran’s oil exports dropped to around 1 million barrels per day from 2.5 million. Gross domestic product shrank by 5 to 6 percent. Inflation soared to 45 percent, and unemployment to 35 percent.”
Israel and Saudi Arabia are two main opponents of this deal. Israel’s resentment is quite obvious as it is the main rival of Iran and it wants to dismantle Iran’ nuclear programme. A nuclear-capable Iran is a continuous headache for Israel. Israel has certain reservations as the interim nuclear deal does not question nuclear capability of Iran.
In a way, Saudi Arabia’s concerns are quite significant and valid as if Iran’s relations become normal with US, it will certainly gain political and economic role in the South Asia and Middle East which is unacceptable to the Saudi Arabia.
After decades of stand-still between Iran-U.S relations, this nuclear deal could set new dimensions for the international politics. This will help improve security and stability not only in the Middle East but also in South Asia. If properly and timely implemented, it goes in favor of both Tehran and Washington. Iran wants to boost its economy and free oil trade with the world and U.S. does not want to see a nuclear-capable Iran as it wants to see a stronger Israel compared to Iran.
Iran has emerged as the major beneficiary of this deal as it will sustain its nuclear capability, although will not make a nuclear weapon, will boost its economy and will play a significant political role in the region. In writers’ view, this interim deal will succeed, and as a result of final deal, Iran’s significant political role in the region is imminent.
The only danger to the regional players and the United States will be from Saudi Arabia, it will play a proxy war in the region. Now it will be a test for Pakistan and United States how to tackle this issue. By and large, the said deal is a good omen for the region in specific and the world, in general.
The writer is pursuing an M.Phil in International Relations from IQRA University Islamabad. He tweets @irfanchaudhri and can be reached at irfanchaudhri@gmail.com
Pakistan Rupee Exchange Rate